Updated H1N1 Information - July 30, 2009

  • DOH and CDC predict that the fall wave of H1N1 will be more virulent and widespread than the spring wave. Right now H1N1 is 40 percent more contagious than the regular seasonal flu. CDC predicts 40 percent of world population will contract it.
  • It is believed that the Fall H1N1 wave in the Northern Hemisphere will NOT morph into a 1918 scenario because:
    • There is significant increased scientific knowledge about flu viruses that includes the benefits of NPI’s (non-pharmaceutical interventions) and which ones to use and how to use them
    • Sanitation practices are significantly improved
    • Communication systems are vastly improved allowing the rapid spread of important information
    • People are AWARE that this virus is looming (there was no forewarning to the Spanish Flu)
    • People are generally in much better health now than in 1918, when there were many uncontrolled/underlying illnesses in the general population (penicillin wasn’t even invented yet)
    • Vaccines are being rapidly developed, and there is widespread availability of anti-virals (Tamiflu and Ralenza)
  • Currently the CDC is recommending that colleges do all they can to AVOID closure. They recommend widespread flu education that includes campaigns to encourage people to report symptoms and isolate themselves if they are symptomatic for seven days.
  • 225 to 315 million H1N1 vaccines could be ready by late October and another 300 million doses by the end of 2009. The vaccine will be distributed to states by the federal government at no cost to the public. The shot likely will require two injections, one month apart. The DOH has a tiered system to allot the vaccine to the public (see www.pandemicflu.gov/vaccine/allocationguidance.pdf). The WWDOH has no idea how many doses they’ll get.
  • The regular seasonal vaccine will be available in the early Fall but will NOT protect against H1N1 – however, people should still continue to get this vaccine.
  • The CDC does not have a definitive recommendation on the use of facemasks or respirators. They are recommended for those with a high risk of suffering a severe response to H1N1 (those with pre-existing autoimmune or metabolic illnesses). They state that ALL ill people should wear masks and front line health care workers and caregivers of the ill should also wear masks. (See www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm)
  • Number of cases/deaths (reported):
    • Worldwide (WHO) = 134,503 cases, 816 deaths
    • United States (CDC) = 43,771 cases, 302 deaths
    • Case Fatality Ratio = 0.4% (very low)